Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today: - Venezuela oil pact ‘looks like an insider deal.’ - Iran again offers Trump the deal he wants but the president wants to ‘hit them hard’ instead. - Markets: It’s messy out there. - You’re not still using a 60:40 stock-bonds portfolio, are you? - The one number Fed Chair Warsh is actually watching. - There’s a global sardine crisis—and prices are through the roof. ➡️ Did someone forward you this email? If you would like to receive this information directly, every morning before the markets open in New York, sign up here. ONE BIG THING Venezuela oil pact ‘looks like an insider deal’ for those close to Delcy and Trump, expert says President Trump’s plan for the U.S. to own majority control of Venezuelan oilfields harks back to a century-old era of colonialism and backroom dealmaking with Venezuelan oilmen and politicians, energy and geopolitical analysts told Fortune’s Jordan Blum. “If the U.S. scheme in Venezuela sounds colonial, that’s because it is,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst with the Eurasia Group. “This is the Trump administration trying to increase U.S. revenue from Venezuelan oil production. It’s extremely unusual. It’s probably unprecedented in the history of the international oil industry.” Under the deal, the U.S. would control more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela. The agreement would give the U.S. Department of Defense a 55% stake in the private Venezuelan oil producer North American Blue Energy Partners. NABEP is controlled by the Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt López and his family. López has fostered close relationships with both the Trump and Rodríguez administrations. “From a certain angle, this looks like an insider deal to profit businessmen who are close to Delcy and who are also close to Trump and his inner circle,”