Dive Brief: - El Niño has developed in the Pacific Ocean, with warming water potentially upending U.S. weather patterns and complicating electric utility forecasting, say meteorologists at AccuWeather following NOAA’s June 11 declaration. - The return of El Niño could offer some relief to utilities preparing for another active Atlantic hurricane season, but it may increase operational risks elsewhere on the grid, experts said. The previous El Niño episode persisted from 2023 into 2024. - The climate pattern is developing unusually early and is strengthening quickly, allowing it to exert greater influence on weather conditions across the United States. The outlook comes as utilities continue to invest in grid resilience and storm response capabilities. Dive Insight: A split summer scenario, where regions across the U.S. experience contrasting weather patterns, is expected to increase pressure on regional power systems, with AccuWeather forecasting heavier rainfall in parts of California and the Southwest alongside hotter, drier conditions across the Northwest, Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. In Florida, forecasters expect periodic stretches of above-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall that could add to load management challenges. Meteorologists said the shifting conditions may drive flooding and debris flows, along with drought and wildfire threats, with the potential for regional outages and broader grid disruptions through late fall. AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms in the Atlantic, which would be below recent La Niña-influenced seasons, but fewer storms do not mean lower reliability risk. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said storms forming close to the coastline during El Niño years can pose heightened risks due to shorter preparation time. “It only takes one storm,” DaSilva said, noting that even a quieter season can still yield significant infrastructure damage. The Edison Electric Institute, which represents investor-owned utilities, is prompting its members to coordinate with industry
Fewer storms, not less risk: El Niño will bring mixed results across US power systems
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