"$6 Diesel...Enter Tesla Semi," analyst Andrew Percoco wrote in a Friday note to clients.
By 2040, Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla could have 82,000 Semis on the road, representing about 13.5% of the addressable autonomous trucking market.
Those vehicles would generate roughly $17 billion in annual software revenue and $7.5 billion in earnings before interest and taxes, the bank projects.
Musk also acknowledged that Tesla Semis will remain a "very small percentage" of the company's total vehicle fleet through the end of this year.
The estimates for Tesla's software opportunity do not include revenue from Semi truck sales or charging infrastructure.