What to expect from trucking regulations over the next 6 months Key takeaways - EPA proposed the removal of DEF derates for new trucks. Will the rule stick? - FMCSA's Motus registration system was overwhelmed with technical challenges. Can the platform recover? - The Department of Labor continued its fight over independent contractor classification. Will it succeed in changing the classification? - Autonomous truck regulations are still a murky patchwork of standards. Is a national framework on its way? As fleets roll into the second half of the year, the Trump administration continues making headlines with a new regulatory action every few weeks. In just the last week, I scrambled to cover the federal regulatory agenda, the new NOx amendments, and a truck-parking funding announcement. In the spirit of betting apps like Polymarket and Kalshi, I have some overconfident predictions about exactly where the regulatory road is bending for the rest of 2026. From NOx to autonomous trucks, here you’ll find the important background information on pressing regulatory issues—and at least one prediction for each. Final NOx rule The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued its long-awaited NOx program amendments as a proposed rule earlier this month. The rulemaking, true to the American Trucking Association's prediction a year prior, culled the warranty extension to lessen manufacturers’ regulatory burdens. Unexpectedly, it also proposed removing DEF derates. The Trump EPA already made its disdain for derates clear, but the proposed removal in the NOx rule was a curveball. Since the rule concerns model-year 2027 equipment, the EPA faces pressure to issue a final rule before the end of this year. Prediction: The final NOx amendment rule will be published before November, with no significant changes from the proposed rule. A separate rule, allowing shops to remove DEF derates from existing powertrains, will