The market is no longer debating whether Uber can become profitable. It is debating who owns the economics of transportation when the driver disappears. That distinction matters because Uber is generating more cash than at any point in its history just as investors are becoming increasingly nervous that autonomous vehicles could disrupt the marketplace responsible for producing that cash. Uber generated $2.8 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 and has now surpassed $10 billion of trailing twelve-month free cash flow. Gross bookings climbed 24% to $58.0 billion, adjusted EBITDA increased 33%, and non-GAAP operating income rose 40%. Those numbers describe a platform that is strengthening financially, not one experiencing an immediate competitive collapse. Yet Uber’s share price of $75.88 remains well below its $101.99 52-week high and below the roughly $101–103 range currently implied by analyst consensus estimates. The reason for that disconnect is increasingly obvious: autonomous vehicles have become Uber’s most important valuation variable. Management intends to commit more than $10 billion over several years to autonomous-vehicle partners, fleet operations and vehicle commitments. That is not a trivial amount even for a company producing approximately $10 billion of annual free cash flow. The market therefore has to decide whether Uber is building the dominant distribution layer for autonomous transportation or spending billions to defend a marketplace whose economics could eventually migrate toward the companies supplying the vehicles and autonomy software. That is where I think the current price becomes interesting. My base valuation starts with normalized free cash flow of $9.5 billion rather than simply annualizing Uber’s current $10.1 billion run rate. That gives some allowance for future investment requirements. I then model FCF growth moderating from 15% in year one to 7% by year five, use a 10% discount rate and assume 3.5%